Deutsche Bank Warns of Stagflationary Shock as Oil Stays Near $100

Deutsche Bank issued a stark warning Thursday about the risk of a broad stagflationary shock to the global economy as oil prices remained close to $100 a barrel and the Middle East conflict showed no signs of abating. Market strategist Jim Reid said investors are increasingly pricing in a protracted conflict that could cause extensive economic damage. The warning echoed similar cautions from economists during the oil crises of the 1970s.
Iranian forces struck merchant vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, oil tankers near Iraq’s export ports, fuel facilities in Bahrain, and the port area adjacent to Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal. The Thai-registered Mayuree Naree was hit, with three crew members reported trapped. Iraq suspended all crude exports and Oman cleared its main terminal of vessels.
Brent crude rose 9% Thursday to touch $100.29 before settling at around $98. West Texas Intermediate gained 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has surged from $60 at the start of the year to a peak of $119 earlier in the week. Iran’s military worsened the outlook by warning of $200-per-barrel oil.
The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of emergency crude from 32 member nations, and the US released 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. President Trump vowed to continue military operations and said the reserve drawdown would reduce prices. Energy Secretary Chris Wright accused Iran of deliberately threatening global energy security.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel from $66. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6% and South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.2%. European natural gas prices climbed 7.7% for a second consecutive day, compounding inflationary pressures across Europe.