Is the “One-China” Policy Up for Negotiation by Trump?

A foundational element of U.S. foreign policy, the “One-China” policy, appears to be up for negotiation as the Trump administration considers a significant demand from Beijing. The Chinese government’s request for the U.S. to “oppose” Taiwanese independence would, if granted, represent the most substantial change to that policy in decades.
The “One-China” policy is a complex set of principles that allows the U.S. to have formal relations with Beijing while maintaining unofficial ties with Taipei. A key component of this policy has been the U.S. statement that it does “not support” Taiwanese independence. China’s demand to change this to “oppose” would fundamentally alter the policy’s delicate balance.
This issue has been placed on the agenda as President Trump and President Xi prepare for a summit, blending security concerns with trade negotiations. The transactional style of the Trump administration has led to speculation that even long-standing, core policies like this one are not off-limits in the pursuit of a deal.
The ambiguity inherent in the “One-China” policy has been its greatest strength, allowing it to adapt to changing circumstances while maintaining peace. A move to make the policy more explicit, as China is demanding, would rob it of this flexibility and could lead to a more rigid and confrontational environment.
The key question is whether the Trump administration views the “One-China” policy as a fixed principle or a negotiable asset. The answer will have profound implications not only for Taiwan but for the entire structure of U.S. relations with China and the broader Indo-Pacific region.