US Oil Prices Could Spike Again as Iran War Stretches Into an Uncertain Third Week

US oil prices face the prospect of another spike as the Iran war stretches into an uncertain third week with no resolution in sight. Analyst Patrick De Haan has projected pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon Monday, while the $4 per gallon level remains a realistic near-term possibility. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s duration and scope is amplifying an already highly volatile energy market.
The price surge began on February 28, the day the US and Israel initiated their military campaign against Iran, and has continued at an accelerating pace over the three weeks since. From below $3 per gallon before hostilities began, the national gasoline average has risen 23% to $3.70. Every week of continued fighting adds new pressure to an energy market already operating with very little supply buffer.
The US attack on Kharg Island on Friday, which targeted the center of Iran’s oil processing and export capacity, further tightened an already stressed global energy supply picture. Iran’s ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has kept roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply off the global market. Brent crude oscillated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 following a brief rise to $100 on Sunday.
California has been hit hardest among US states, with average pump prices exceeding $5 per gallon and certain Los Angeles stations listing above $8. Diesel for commercial transport could reach $5.15 per gallon nationally. Senior executives from Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have all briefed White House officials on supply risks, with Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods taking a particularly direct approach in warning about speculative trading and the potential for prices to rise beyond what physical supply conditions alone would justify.
Wall Street opened Monday on a cautiously positive note, with the S&P 500 gaining roughly 1% as crude prices softened temporarily. Oil company stocks have reached all-time highs since the conflict began. Until the military and diplomatic situation in the region stabilizes, US oil prices will remain in a state of persistent and deep unpredictability.